Impact of U.S. Presidential Elections on the Dollar Index (DXY)
A comprehensive look at how the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) responded from Election Day to Result Day across four major election years: 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. This analysis highlights the shifts in DXY in the days between the election and the final result announcement. Each election tells its own story in terms of market reaction, reflecting the policies and economic directions anticipated under the incoming president.
2008 Election (November 4)
The result was announced promptly on Election Night, with Barack Obama winning.
| Date | DXY Change (%) |
| Nov 4 | -0.3% |
| Nov 5 | -0.5% |
| Nov 6 | -1.2% |
| Nov 7 | -0.9% |
Since the result was announced promptly, DXY responded within a day, showing some decline, reflecting the market’s reaction to the new presidency.
2012 Election (November 6)
The result was declared on Election Night, with Barack Obama re-elected.
| Date | DXY Change (%) |
| Nov 6 | +0.3% |
| Nov 7 | +0.59% |
| Nov 8 | +0.34% |
The market quickly adjusted with moderate positivity in response to Obama’s re-election, showing stability in the dollar’s value over the days that followed.
2016 Election (November 8)
The result was declared on Election Night, with Donald Trump winning.
| Date | DXY Change (%) |
| Nov 8 | +0.4% |
| Nov 9 | +0.7% |
| Nov 10 | +0.51% |
The DXY rose significantly as investors adjusted to Donald Trump’s unexpected victory, anticipating policy changes that could strengthen the dollar.
2020 Election (November 3)
The result was delayed due to a high volume of mail-in ballots, with Joe Biden declared the winner on November 7.
| Date | DXY Change (%) |
| Nov 3 | +0.3% |
| Nov 4 | +0.43% |
| Nov 5 | -0.53% |
| Nov 6 | -0.54% |
| Nov 7 | -0.2% |
The DXY showed mixed volatility as results were delayed, with the dollar weakening gradually. After the announcement of Biden’s victory on November 7, the DXY continued a declining trend, reflecting market adjustments to the expected economic direction.
Summary of Election Result Dates
Here are the dates when the U.S. presidential election results were declared for each year:
1. 2008: Election Day was November 4, and the result was declared the same night, with Barack Obama winning.
2. 2012: Election Day was November 6, and the result was also declared the same night, with Barack Obama re-elected.
3. 2016: Election Day was November 8, and the result was declared later that night, with Donald Trump winning.
4. 2020: Election Day was November 3, but due to a high volume of mail-in ballots and counting delays, the result was declared on November 7, with Joe Biden winning.
Each election varied slightly in timing based on vote-counting speed and circumstances surrounding each election.
